Bayesian control letter associated with non-conformities in medical
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21501/21454086.3362Keywords:
Control chart, Delphi method, Bayesian statistics, Statistical processes control, Elicitation, Ishikawa, A priori distribution, A posteriori probability distribution, Variable confidence interval, R statistical software.Abstract
In this work, using a commonly used industrial tool, such as control charts, was explored in a purely social environment, specifically in health. It was intended to present a method to introduce this easy-to-use tools-based concept and implementation. Based on the technique proposed by Ishikawa [1] as the first instance of the process, it is followed by the implementation of the Delphi methodology in two rounds and ending with a third round of Delphi, using the freehand elicitation method. This process turned out to be novel due to the estimation of the Bayesian control limits, the estimation of the a priori distribution by freehand, consulting experts, and the determination of a posteriori predictive distribution. These
allow the permanent updating of the control limits in a social process, as far as we know, not used in the literature. This result will allow the generation of early alerts to control the process, either due to the unexpected increase in non-conformities or because the innovations are surprisingly less than expected according to the posterior probability distribution.
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